For both strategic and commercial reasons, India continues its wide-ranging pursuit of ballistic and cruise missile capabilities. India recently inducted the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile, the product of an Indian-Russian joint venture, into its armed forces. However, the smooth progress of the BrahMos effort has been marred by dissatisfaction among those Russian defense companies that have not been allowed to participate in the program. Meanwhile, New Delhi has struggled to overcome setbacks in its long-range ballistic missile project, and it is likely to conduct additional tests of this system in 2007.

The BrahMos Dispute
In December 2006, reports in the official Russian news agency
Itar-Tass accused BrahMos Aerospace Ltd. (the joint Indian-Russian manufacturer of the BrahMos) of trying to shut similar missiles out of the market, such as the Moskit, produced by the Russian state-owned defense giant Rosoboronexport. [1] Analysts, including those from Russia, suggested that Rosoboronexport was likely behind the allegation. They noted that BrahMos is the only missile Russia has developed or co-developed that Rosoboronexport does not market, implying that it will not receive profits from sales of the system. [2]

BrahMos Aerospace responded to these charges by stating that New Delhi has placed orders with several Russian enterprises to supply 100 ground- and submarine-launched Club cruise missiles to the Indian Army and Navy. [3] BrahMos CEO A.S. Pillai acknowledged the Russian complaint that India is replacing Russian-made Club anti-ship missiles with the BrahMos on Indian surface ships, but also stated that the success of BrahMos missiles on Russian-built Krivak class Indian naval frigates had led India to place further orders for these ships from Russia, more than compensating for the reduced Club sales. [4] BrahMos Aerospace did not directly address the allegation that the BrahMos missile will be marketed against competing Russian missiles, but did state that its marketing of the system to other countries was being undertaken with the approval and support of their Russian joint venture partners. [5]

In recent months, India has conducted negotiations to sell the missile to a number of countries, including Brazil, Chile, Kuwait, Indonesia, Malaysia, and South Africa. [6] In doing so, India and Russia have sought to adhere to the guidelines of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) by ensuring that the anti-ship cruise missile is limited to a range of 290 kilometers (km) and a payload of 200-300 kilograms (kg). [7] This combination of range and payload means that the BrahMos would not be treated as a “Category I” system under the MTCR and therefore would not be covered by its most restrictive export control rules. MTCR Category I systems are those having a range equal to or exceeding 300 km while carrying a payload of 500 kg; under the MTCR, export licenses for these missiles are subject to a “presumption of denial” in member states. [8] However, because the BrahMos appears capable of flying to a range equal to or exceeding 300 km with a lighter payload, it would likely be subject to the MTCR’s Category II requirements (specifically to Item 19 of the regime’s Technical Annex), which mandate that the exporter obtain end-use assurances from the recipient that the missile will not be used to deliver weapons of mass destruction (WMD). [9] None of the potential customers for the BrahMos mentioned above are alleged to possess WMD. This attention to the MTCR is consistent with recent steps India has taken to conform its export control regulations to the standards of the regime. [10]

Notwithstanding the BrahMos controversy, overall defense ties between Russia and India have remained unaffected for now, as seen in the cordial welcome given Russian President Vladimir Putin during his January 25-26, 2007, visit to New Delhi. In recent weeks, senior officials from both sides have discussed plans for further transactions, including Indian purchases of Russian T-90 tanks and the emergency purchase of 30 to 40 Sukhoi-30MKI jets. [11] In addition, in an arrangement similar to that which produced the BrahMos, the Indian state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) and the Russian Irkut Corporation announced plans to jointly develop and manufacture a 60-ton multi-role transport aircraft. [12]

While seeking to export BrahMos to friendly countries, New Delhi continues to seek advanced cruise missile technology from a number of states, including France. In September 2006, during the visit of Indian Defense Minister Pranab Mukherjee to Paris, the French government agreed in principle to provide such
technology to India, but no agreement was concluded at the time, and neither side revealed the capabilities or the specific technology under discussion. [13] It has been speculated that since India’s cruise missiles can already strike targets almost 300 km distant, the technology sought from France was intended to allow India to develop systems with greater range, although such a sale, depending on the details, might contravene France’s obligations under the MTCR guidelines. [14] At the time of writing, there is no firm indication that the deal between France and India has been consummated.

The Indian Army plans to deploy a land-attack version of the BrahMos by late 2007, and an air-launched variant will be deployed by the Air Force on India’s Sukhoi-30 MKI aircraft by 2009. [15] In addition, press reports indicate that New Delhi hopes eventually to deploy nuclear tipped land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs) with a range of more than 1,500 km. [16] However, it is unlikely that these long-range LACMs will be based on the BrahMos platform since the missile’s liquid-fuel ramjet engine will not support such an extended range. [17]

The Agni III Test and Other Missile
Developments Indian defense scientists have stated that the Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO), India’s top defense research agency, is likely to conduct a second test of the 3,000- 4,000-km-range Agni III ballistic missile in January or February 2007. [18] The first test of this missile, in July 2006, failed after the missile fell into the sea without reaching its intended target. (See “India’s Agni III Test Makes Few Waves Abroad, More at Home,” WMD Insights, September 2006.) According to Indian press reports, citing sources in the DRDO, the design tested in July 2006 suffered from serious flaws, and major components of the system, including the staging and re-entry vehicle, have not been validated. [19] Moreover, these reports suggest that even after these flaws are rectified, at least three to four tests will be required before production could be considered.

The proposed Agni III test will come at a time when the DRDO faces increasing criticism over continual delays and/or failures to deliver on several other ambitious projects, including two surface-to-air missile systems, the Akash (25 km) and Trishul (9 km). [20] A Parliamentary defense committee recently criticized the DRDO for its lack of financial accountability and weak auditing practices in managing these troubled projects. [21] Reports have stated that the Akash missile project is on the verge of being scrapped after a series of failed tests. [22] In its place, the Air Force has ordered the Israeli Spyder system. The Trishul system, which has been downgraded to a “technology demonstrator” and given a one-year extension to assess technologies for potential use in other programs, has also been effectively disbanded. [23] One missile system that has been inducted, the Prithvi I, a 150-km-range land-based ballistic missile, also suffers from serious operational problems. Prithvi’s accuracy has been questioned, and there are reports that the Indian Army was forced to deploy it prematurely. Meanwhile, the Agni I and II have apparently not undergone sufficient testing to permit deployment. [24]

In the midst of these setbacks, the DRDO successfully tested a ballistic missile defense system in November 2006. An unnamed interceptor missile was able to strike a Prithvi II missile
(250-km-range, deployed by the Indian Air Force), over the Bay of Bengal. [25] The DRDO plans to produce anti-missile systems that can destroy missiles both outside the earth’s atmosphere and near the earth’s surface. [26]

Conclusion
The development of future variants of cruise missiles, as well as expected tests of the Agni III, will help determine the structure of India’s minimum nuclear deterrence posture. India’s cruise missile program has experienced recent success, but its faltering ballistic missile program has come under criticism, creating uncertainty as to the role it will eventually play in India’s strategic planning. [27] Meanwhile, depending on the capabilities of the systems New Delhi markets to others, India’s missile exports could either reinforce the norms of the MTCR or pose new missile proliferation challenges.

Sharad Joshi – Monterey Institute Center for Nonproliferation Studies