“The people are searching for a dream, a national project that proves to us that we are strong and capable of doing something fitting of the grandeur of a country that some have begun to doubt.” [1]

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and his son Jamal, whom many expect to succeed him, have announced that Egypt will revive its abandoned nuclear program in order to meet the country’s rising energy needs. [2] The announcement has caused some observers to worry that Iran’s budding nuclear program, perceived as potentially providing it with a nuclear weapon capability, is causing other nations in the Middle East to begin nuclear programs that could have open-ended objectives. [3]

On September 19, 2006, Jamal Mubarak, the eldest son of Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, addressing a conference of the ruling Egyptian Democratic Party, presented a proposal to revive Egypt’s dormant nuclear power program. During a passionate, one hour speech, Jamal Mubarak not only spoke about nuclear energy but also about Egypt’s “responsibility to offer a new vision for the Middle East based on our Arab identity,” and explicitly rejected the “New Middle East” – based on democracy and free-market economies – that outside powers are actively seeking to advance in the region. [4] In his nuclear proposal, Jamal explained that Egypt’s energy needs are growing at approximately seven percent per year and stated that, “We will continue using our natural energy resources, but we should conserve these resources for our future generations. The whole world is looking at alternative energy – so should Egypt – including nuclear.” [5] He continued by declaring, “We have to take advantage of the new nuclear energy resources for peaceful purposes…. Nuclear techniques that offer clean and inexpensive energy need to be taken into consideration…. Egypt does not have to start from scratch because we already have the knowledge and just have to move forward.” [6] (Currently Egypt has two operating nuclear research reactors, but no nuclear power plants in operation or under construction.)

Jamal Mubarak’s proposal, also supported by his father, is moving forward in tangible steps. The plan calls for nuclear power plants to be operational within ten years, and a government spokesman confirmed that a ministerial committee had already been formed to “speed up implementing the nuclear alternative.” [7] On October 10, Egyptian Minister of Petroleum Semeh Fahmy underscored Egypt’s need for new energy sources, stating that domestic energy spending for the previous year had amounted to $20 billion. He noted that with growing energy needs and increased fuel costs, Egypt would be spending $67 billion annually in the future if an alternative source were not found. [8] On October 11, the Egyptian Parliament, headed by Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif, formally authorized the government to pursue a peaceful nuclear energy program to meet Egypt’s electric power needs. [9]

President Mubarak will also be hosting a meeting of the Egyptian Supreme Energy Council in the near future; the council has not met since the 1986 Chernobyl accident, which prompted the Egyptian government to halt its nuclear power program. [10] The meeting, which will include scientific experts and senior Egyptian officials, will discuss the future of the overall nuclear program, as well as proposals regarding possible sites for the nuclear facilities. [11]

Dr. Ali Saeedi, a previous Minister of Energy and Electricity who was responsible for Egypt’s nuclear power program in the 1980s and currently serves on a senior advisory board to the International Atomic Energy Agency, welcomed the Egyptian decision to revive its nuclear power program. [12] Separately, Egypt is actively looking to recruit Egyptian scientists who currently live abroad to work on the nuclear program. [13] Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Ahmad Abu Al-Ghayt announced that President Mubarak will be visiting both Russia and China in coming weeks, possibly to look for support for Egypt’s re-emerging nuclear energy plans. [14]

The U.S. Ambassador to Egypt, Francis J. Ricciardone, stated that the United States supported Egypt’s and, indeed, any country’s desire to pursue a peaceful nuclear program. [15] He also said that American nuclear scientists would be collaborating with Egypt in its efforts to acquire peaceful nuclear energy. [16] One Egyptian newspaper, citing “high level sources,” claimed that the United States had offered to finance the nuclear program on the condition that Egypt pledge revenues from its natural gas and oil reserves and income generated from the Suez Canal as security for the loan. [17] The same sources alleged that Mubarak will search for alternative funding from Russia and China during his upcoming trip to avoid the U.S. payment conditions. [18] The Egyptian Minister of Electricity told a local newspaper that Egypt is looking to negotiate with foreign companies regarding the funding of the project. [19]

Initial reports indicated that the Egyptian government is seeking to build a 1,100 megawatt nuclear power reactor near the Mediterranean coast at Al-Daba’ah and will eventually build three nuclear plants by 2020 that together will generate 1,800 megawatts of energy. [20] The first nuclear reactor alone will cost approximately $1.5 billion. [21] Another report states that three nuclear plants will be built, each generating 600 megawatts of energy, with the facilities scheduled to be functioning, respectively, by 2015, 2017, and 2019. [22]

While a source of potential proliferation concern, Egypt’s decision to move forward with a nuclear project is not surprising, in view of Iran’s aggressive efforts to gain mastery of sensitive aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle that could provide it with the material for nuclear arms. In recent months, the Arab League, which is headed by former Egyptian foreign minister Amr Musa, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), have called on Arab nations to embark on nuclear programs, themselves, because of concerns about Iran’s nuclear advances and the fact that the Arab states will be surrounded by countries with nuclear weapons or with nuclear programs that could produce them. [23] The Arab programs would be focused on energy production, but implicit in the calls for their development is the recognition that even peaceful nuclear programs would also bring Arab states closer to the ability to develop nuclear weapons should they choose to do so at a later date.

Also of interest is that some Egyptian commentators have noted that the fact that Jamal Mubarak was the one to present the nuclear proposal showed that “he’s paving the way for his own future in politics,” after his father leaves the presidency. [24] It has long been rumored in the Middle East that the aging President Mubarak was preparing the ground for the succession of his eldest son as the next leader of Egypt. Jamal’s prominent role in the upcoming nuclear project and his recent nationalist tone may be aimed at enhancing the young Mubarak’s stature within the Egyptian government and among the Egyptian people. Indeed, because of these political considerations, the opposition Muslim Brotherhood party responded with little enthusiasm to Mubarak’s announcement, even though the group has long championed the revival of the Egyptian nuclear program. (See “Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood Presses Government For Nuclear Weapons” in this issue of WMD Insights.) Nonetheless, the popularity of the re-emerging Egyptian nuclear endeavor both inside Egypt and in the Arab world as a whole is likely to increase the profile of this young political contender.

Sammy Salama, Gina Cabrera-Farraj - Monterey Institute Center for Nonproliferation Studiess